From observation to testing
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It seems like a simple process: you carry out your field research, you identify patterns in what you’ve observed, formulate a hypothesis and design an experiment to test it. But you’ve already seen that moving from observation to testing isn’t so easy.
There are many details you need to consider so that the result of that experiment is what you’re looking for: reliable signals. Let’s go step by step through some tips to make the process as simple as possible.
Ask yourself questions
Great, you’ve already surveyed or interviewed many people to to discover their pain. But before using those observations to design your experiment, you need to ask yourself a series of questions that only you can answer.
What do I need to confirm to know whether this hypothesis makes sense?
How am I going to to test whether my hypothesis is true or false?
What am I going to to measure for validation (or not) my hypothesis? What’s the minimum figure that will prove it? For example: 15% of the people interviewed leave their contact details.
What would you consider a success (in the experiment)?
Those answers will help you create a much more precise test, but there are a more question you need to answer: how much will it cost you (in effort, time, and money) to carry out that experiment? If what you’re trying to prove requires too high a cost… change the test.
What if I have more than one hypothesis?
The observation from previous tests may have led you to several hypotheses that do not invalidate yours, but rather complementAnd it is necessary organize them to design your next experiment.
In this phase you don’t need to prove whether a business exists, whether it can scale, or whether it will be profitable. The only thing you’re trying to find out is whether what you’ve observed actually happens and is important enough to the people affected.
Now, at the start of your entrepreneurial journey, you’ll mainly work with hypotheses related to the problem, the people who suffer from it, and the behaviors you’ve observed. Write them down. All of them them. Use the formula “I believe that…” to get your mind into the mood correct: it is a beliefnot a fact, and as such, may be wrong.
The next step is to find out which of these hypotheses need to be tested and which do not. Consider how many of them have evidence and separate them from those for which you have no clues at all. Focus on the latter and ask yourself which of them, if it failed, would make you rethink your interpretation of the problem.. You now have everything you need the most important hypothesis, which you need to test
This process will also help you not to run tests that don’t match the stage your exploration is in. It’s very tempting to run tests that tell us whether the project is viable, whether we can design a business and sustain it, whether we can build the product. But we’re not at that phase yet. Now the experiments must focus on uncovering whether there’s a gap in the market for what we offer
Reduce errors
You already know that in entrepreneurship experimentation is constant; you might even have several experiments underway two or more tests at the same time. To minimize or avoid errors, use a experimentation flow refined and customized one. Follow these steps:
Visualize your experiment. Write down the test you want to run and create a table to help you track progress and identify bottlenecks.
Set limits. Don’t start new experiments until you see progress in the one you’re running.
Continuous experimentation. When the experiment flows smoothly, review how you’re working: you might want to examine a problem in greater depth or change the boundaries that determine when to run more tests.
Remember this sequence: observe — formulate your hypothesis — design the experiment. You now have everything you need to get signals.
Sources:
https://www.strategyzer.com/library/validate-your-ideas-with-the-test-card
